🔗 Share this article

A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.